Let’s not turn that “one expert” into “all experts”, please.

A death rate of one per thousand is the death rate of the flu, but what happened in China and what is happening in Italy, Spain, France, Iran, and soon enough more and more countries, shows beyond doubt that this is not the case.

On the Diamond Princess, everybody was tested. Of 712 infected individuals, eight died so far; that’s 1.12 percent.

The second best case for estimate is South Korea, the country that did the most testing and that, unlike most other countries with major outbreaks, managed to identify and isolate most of the infected, as shown by the fact that they are now finding only a few dozen new cases per day, despite carrying out 20,000 daily tests, while most European countries carry out less tests and find hundreds or thousands new cases every day. 8,961 cases were detected in South Korea; 111 of them died, or 1.24 %.

Generally speaking, developed countries with a death rate significantly above 1 % are not testing enough. The very few countries with a death rate significantly below 1 % are in the early stages of the infection.

A death rate of one per thousand is wishful thinking, a reassuring but misleading thought that will lead those who believe it to underestimate the threat and worsen the situation…



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