Without quarantine measures, the number of daily deaths from the virus seems to spread exponentially for 25 days, remain constant for 10 days and go down exponentially for another 25 days, when the number of deaths ends. This generates a 60-day cycle where 0.1% to 0.2% of the entire population would die from the disease.

The more efficient the quarantine measures, the lower the infection rate per day, which varies from 30% to 60% of increase in the number of infected per day. The sooner the chart reaches the plateau, the less dead in the 60-day cycle.

The numbers of infected people are 5 to 30 times higher than the official numbers, which shows a very high false mortality, above 1%, reaching 8%.

China, Korea and Taiwan quickly took very efficient measures and in 60 days of cycle they already got rid of the virus (China) or they will get rid if they keep the measures efficiently (Korea and Taiwan).

In Italy the measures came late and as the quarantine takes 10 days to have an effect on the number of infected and dead, it will have a high number of deaths, I estimate that about 10 thousand dead by 5/1.

Estimated deaths in Italy, which came into quarantine on the tenth day after the first death: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Integrate+%280+to+21%29+1.36%5Ex+%2B+integrate+%280+to+10%29+1.36%5E21+-+integrate+%280+ to +21% 29 + -1.36% 5Ex

In Brazil, no total quarantine measures have been taken, which should lead to 160,000 deaths if this continues. If a strict quarantine is declared and effectively carried out on 03/26 (tenth day after the first death) 37 thousand Brazilians should die by covid-19.

Estimated deaths in Brazil without quarantine: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Integrate+%280+to+25%29+1.45%5Ex+%2B+integrate+%280+to+10%29+1.45%5E25+-+integrate+%280+ to +25% 29 + -1.45% 5Ex

Estimated deaths in Brazil with quarantine after the tenth day after the first death: https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=Integrate+%280+to+21%29+1.45%5Ex+%2B+integrate+%280+to+10%29+1.45%5E21+-+integrate+%280+ to +21% 29 + -1.45% 5Ex

On March 26th, there should be 100 deaths caused by the virus in Brazil. The 1000 death must occur on 04/01. After 01/04 quarantine measures may not make a big difference anymore and lead to 160 thousand deaths in the country until 05/17 (end of the cycle) when the last death by covid-19 in Brazil should occur.



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